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June Housing Data Shows a Market Finding Balance

June Housing Data Shows a Market Finding Balance

Market outlook

June was largely a month of continuity for the economy and stability for the housing market. That is no small thing after a tumultuous spring that left us whiplashed over mortgage rates and bracing for the economic fallout of rising inflation and the war in Iran. This month, the shocks gave way to a settled, if unspectacular, backdrop: Mortgage rates hovered around 6.5% all month, inflation firmed but largely as expected—landing as confirmation rather than surprise to markets and consumers alike—the labor market steadied further, and the Fed held rates unanimously while signaling a more hawkish posture ahead. It’s not necessarily a rosy picture, but it’s one that looks more steady than just a few months ago.

The housing data told the same story of continuity. Every trend we tracked through the spring carried into June: New listings up, especially in the Northeast; pending sales up for a seventh straight month; and asking prices down, due to seller realism rather than distress. It was a no-news-is-good-news June. While it may seem obvious now, this was far from a foregone conclusion just a few months ago. We spent the spring bracing for another false start and then a second straight Cruel Summer. That the housing market held resilient was not inevitable in hindsight.

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